Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 17.570094 20.039177 22.697564 25.768511 29.214092 32.956453 37.324663
2025-01-26 14.061645 17.441121 21.358014 26.216773 32.064497 38.857108 47.325393
2025-02-02 12.431346 16.266467 20.923947 26.965113 34.559054 43.750788 55.677480
2025-02-09 10.773923 14.799134 19.897965 26.781437 35.775038 47.063298 62.232134
2025-02-16 9.430198 13.520300 18.896741 26.412565 36.566397 49.714939 67.920202
2025-02-23 8.504657 12.676453 18.346786 26.525542 37.909688 53.065106 74.610297
2025-03-02 7.794381 12.040669 17.991923 26.824369 39.455429 56.695642 81.792003
2025-03-09 7.117761 11.375540 17.518692 26.884405 40.621904 59.813704 88.372226
2025-03-16 6.442924 10.640970 16.869751 26.613970 41.256435 62.169459 93.943324
2025-03-23 5.983965 10.189000 16.591690 26.848533 42.606629 65.571359 101.128495
2025-03-30 5.716372 10.010455 16.705822 27.666647 44.849207 70.351495 110.517769
2025-04-06 5.241890 9.450580 16.175799 27.433962 45.451054 72.695409 116.357800
2025-04-13 4.567037 8.504772 14.970541 26.064324 44.226060 72.255583 118.036137
2025-04-20 4.352025 8.328657 15.009328 26.710639 46.232929 76.877319 127.720309
2025-04-27 4.165861 8.183651 15.082538 27.405514 48.337182 81.724395 137.943139
2025-05-04 3.849575 7.773916 14.668989 27.241057 48.999635 84.289112 144.629590
2025-05-11 3.529604 7.327215 14.154269 26.859180 49.259011 86.190495 150.298323
2025-05-18 3.313900 7.058541 13.935128 26.976318 50.365209 89.514055 158.416621
2025-05-25 3.142247 6.859756 13.826673 27.278957 51.799303 93.432292 167.668585
2025-06-01 2.952058 6.606617 13.597009 27.340192 52.799705 96.646635 175.850227
2025-06-08 2.735623 6.280052 13.202899 27.065486 53.171706 98.784299 182.262001
2025-06-15 2.597745 6.104629 13.086509 27.303706 54.481264 102.590227 191.685676
2025-06-22 2.535460 6.084935 13.274031 28.134436 56.923164 108.480113 204.970458